Severe drought and volcano eruption struck Indonesia. As of on 5 July 2026, more than 7,800 households in Indonesia’s Central Java, West Java, East Java, Yogyakarta, and Maluku were affected by worsening water shortages as the El Niño-driven dry season intensifies. Concerns over food security has been mounting ahead of the dry season’s peak between July and September. Regional administrations were instructed to strengthen drought preparedness, as local authorities in West Lombok have already declared a drought emergency. Meanwhile, Mount Anak Krakatau erupted on 7 July 2026, sending an ash plume 100 metres into the sky amid continued elevated volcano activities. No damage was reported but the public was advised to remain alert to potential changes in volcanic activities and avoid carrying out activities near the area.

Source: The Star. (2026, July 5). Drought tightens grip across Indonesia.

Heavy rain continued to batter Thailand. Heavy rainfall hit Thailand’s Phuket Province in the early hours of 1 July 2026, causing flooding across several areas. Numerous roads were submerged, prompting the Phuket City Municipality issued a warning to local residents to move belongings to higher ground. Meanwhile, 55 provinces across the country were forecast to face continued heavy rains, flash floods, waterlogging, and landslides due to the influence of Tropical Storm Maysak. Authorities closely monitored weather conditions, deploy emergency teams to assist flood-prone areas, and prepare shelters if evacuations become necessary.

Source: Bangkok Post. (2026, July 1). Phuket roads flooded following heavy rain. Bangkok Post. (2026, July 5). 55 provinces brace for heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Maysak damaged northern Viet Nam. As of 4 July 2026, Tropical Storm Maysak made landfall in Viet Nam’s Mong Cai, a northern Viet Nam’s town bordering China, with winds of 62-88 kph and gusts of up to 117 kph. The storm tore off metal roofs and toppled trees, though no casualties were reported. Ahead of the storm, the Quang Ninh Provincial Military Command mobilised about 4,000 officers and soldiers, with 130 vehicles on standby.

Source: VnExpress. (2026, July 4). Storm Maysak tears off roofs, topples trees as it hits Vietnam’s northern border.

Myanmar Rice Exports Decline in Early FY2026–27. Myanmar exported 529,534 tonnes of rice and broken rice in the first three months of fiscal year 2026–27 (April 2026 – June 2027), generating about 167 million USD, according to the Myanmar Rice Federation. Export volumes were lower than the more than 600,000 tonnes shipped during the same period a year earlier.

Source: Xinhua. (2026, July 4). Myanmar exports over 520,000 tonnes of rice in first 3 months of FY2026-27

Thailand’s rice exports are expected to 7 million tonnes in 2026. Thailand's exports are now expected to grow 8 – 10 percent in 2026, up from the earlier forecast of 2 – 4 percent, according to the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC). The TNSC expects exports to strengthen in the second half of 2026, driven by easing Middle East tensions, strong global demand, and a favourable exchange rate. Electronics, electrical appliances, and rice will lead growth, with rice shipments being helped by free trade agreements and government-to-government deals, with total rice exports projected to reach 7 million tonnes this year, noted the TNSC. Despite the improved outlook, the TNSC warned that high production costs, expensive electricity, limited financing, climate-related impacts, and global economic uncertainty continue to pose risks to exports. It urged the government to keep the policy rate at 1 percent and support exporters by reducing regulations, stabilising the exchange rate, lowering logistics and energy costs, and promoting greater use of local content.

Source: Bangkok Post. (2026, July 4). Thai exports on course for double-digit growth.

Japan Rice Industry Expects Prices to Continue Falling. Expectations for lower rice prices in Japan are strengthening, according to an industry survey released on Monday. The rice price outlook index for the next three months fell to 19 in June—matching its lowest level on record—reflecting growing expectations of further price declines. If rice prices are expected to be roughly at the same level, the index stands at 50. The stronger the expectations for lower rice prices, the closer it draws to zero. The survey also showed improving supply conditions, with the supply-demand outlook index rising slightly to 20. More than half of respondents said inventory levels were a key factor in assessing prices, indicating that ample rice stocks are weighing on the market. The survey gathered responses from 135 rice producers, wholesalers, retailers, and other industry participants.

Source: The Japan Times. (2026, July 7). Japan’s rice prices likely to fall in coming months.